The Shift
Track the AI-driven workforce transition in real-time. Six interconnected views of the most significant economic transformation in human history.
What Changed Recently
- •Layoff tracker updated: 39,922 tech layoffs YTD across 107 companies, 798/day rate (Feb 19)
- •Baker McKenzie cuts 1,000 roles citing AI — first major law firm layoff wave (Feb 11)
- •"The Claude Crash": IGV plunges 28% from Sept peak after Anthropic legal AI tool. $285B wiped (Feb 3)
- •Amodei pledges 80% of wealth ($21B+) to combat AI-driven inequality — see Indicators
Major updates posted as they occur. Check back for latest data and model changes.
Six Views
Timeline
3 AGI scenarios with 8 parallel tracks showing how the transition unfolds
When AGI arrives determines speed and severity of displacement
US
State-by-state displacement projections linked to timeline scenarios
50 states ranked by vulnerability with housing and employment impacts
Global
7 regions compared: stability, vulnerabilities, and likely outcomes
Safety nets, political stability, and violence risk determine regional outcomes
History
Compare AI to past transitions: speed, breadth, and recovery time
AI moves faster and broader than industrial or digital revolutions
Indicators
Real-time evidence: layoffs, market data, and CEO quotes
Observable evidence tracking displacement in real-time across labor, markets, and capabilities
Horizon
What's on the other side — if we get there
Disease, poverty, scarcity — what becomes possible in 10-20 years if the transition is managed well
Start Here
New to The Shift? Start with the Timeline to understand the three AGI scenarios (aggressive, moderate, conservative), then explore the Indicators dashboard to see real-time evidence.