The Shift
Track the AI-driven workforce transition in real-time. Six interconnected views of the most significant economic transformation in human history.
What Changed Recently
- •May 20, 2026 — ~11,000 cuts in a single day: Meta (8k), Intuit (3k); biggest single-day tech layoff event of 2026 — see Indicators
- •May 19, 2026 — LinkedIn cuts 606 in CA (WARN); ~5% global workforce reduction in progress at the platform people use to find jobs
- •May 14, 2026 — Cisco cuts 4,000 alongside record Q3 revenue ($15.8B) — first major "growing-and-cutting" event of the cycle
- •Apr 23, 2026 — Meta discloses 8,000 cut + raises 2026 capex to $125–145B (>2× 2025); CFO Susan Li: "don't really know what the optimal size of the company will be"
- •Apr 1, 2026 — Oracle begins 10,000-person layoff (headed to 30,000); largest single-company restructuring of 2026
Major updates posted as they occur. Check back for latest data and model changes.
Six Views
Timeline
3 AGI scenarios with 8 parallel tracks showing how the transition unfolds
When AGI arrives determines speed and severity of displacement
US
State-by-state displacement projections linked to timeline scenarios
50 states ranked by vulnerability with housing and employment impacts
Global
7 regions compared: stability, vulnerabilities, and likely outcomes
Safety nets, political stability, and violence risk determine regional outcomes
History
Compare AI to past transitions: speed, breadth, and recovery time
AI moves faster and broader than industrial or digital revolutions
Indicators
Real-time evidence: layoffs, market data, and CEO quotes
Observable evidence tracking displacement in real-time across labor, markets, and capabilities
Horizon
What's on the other side — if we get there
Disease, poverty, scarcity — what becomes possible in 10-20 years if the transition is managed well
Start Here
New to The Shift? Start with the Timeline to understand the three AGI scenarios (aggressive, moderate, conservative), then explore the Indicators dashboard to see real-time evidence.