Global Outlook
AI displacement is a global phenomenon, but each region's path depends on its safety nets, political stability, tech adoption, and cultural relationship to work.
Select Scenario
AGI TimelineHow to read this: Each scenario shows the same events, but timing shifts based on when AGI arrives. "Major" events are marked with larger indicators.
Why Regions Diverge
Safety Nets Matter Most
Regions with strong social safety nets (EU, Japan) can absorb displacement shocks. Those without (US, India) face political instability and social unrest during the transition.
Tech Adoption Speed
High-tech regions (US, China, EU) experience displacement first and fastest. Lower-adoption regions have more time to observe and prepare — but less economic power to respond.
Political Cohesion
Politically stable regions (Japan, EU) can implement coordinated responses. Fragmented or gridlocked systems (US, Latin America) struggle to act decisively.
Cultural Identity
Regions where identity is tied to work (US, Japan) face deeper psychological crises. Those with stronger community bonds or social structures adapt more smoothly.
7 Regional Paths
Under the Moderate (Demis) scenario, regions follow different stability trajectories based on their structural characteristics.
Regional Comparison Matrix
| Region | Safety Net | Tech Adoption | Political Stability | 2025 → 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 75 → 50 | |||
| European Union | 80 → 65 | |||
| China | 70 → 60 | |||
| Japan | 85 → 70 | |||
| India | 65 → 40 | |||
| Latin America | 60 → 45 | |||
| Africa | 55 → 45 |
Reading the data: Stability scores range from 0-100. Higher scores indicate lower risk of social unrest, political collapse, or economic crisis. All regions experience a mid-transition dip, but recovery paths diverge based on structural characteristics.
Data Sources & Methodology
Data Sources
Measures unemployment benefits, healthcare coverage, and social safety net funding as % of GDP.
Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism index, measuring perceptions of political stability and likelihood of violent overthrow.
Evaluates digital infrastructure, technological skills, and readiness to adopt emerging technologies.
Small Arms Survey (civilian gun ownership rates), Global Peace Index, and recent conflict history from Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP).
Key Assumptions
Assumes regions act as relatively unified entities. In reality, sub-regional variation (e.g., Southern vs Northern Europe) may be significant.
Assumes safety nets reduce unrest linearly. Actual thresholds may be non-linear (e.g., "good enough" vs "not enough" rather than gradual).
Does not model unexpected shocks (wars, pandemics, natural disasters) that could dramatically alter trajectories independent of AI displacement.
Data sources: OECD SOCX, World Bank WGI, IMD Digital Competitiveness, Small Arms Survey, Global Peace Index. Click links to verify data sources. All projections are scenario-based estimates, not predictions.