Global Outlook

AI displacement is a global phenomenon, but each region's path depends on its safety nets, political stability, tech adoption, and cultural relationship to work.

Select Scenario

AGI Timeline

How to read this: Each scenario shows the same events, but timing shifts based on when AGI arrives. "Major" events are marked with larger indicators.

Why Regions Diverge

Safety Nets Matter Most

Regions with strong social safety nets (EU, Japan) can absorb displacement shocks. Those without (US, India) face political instability and social unrest during the transition.

Tech Adoption Speed

High-tech regions (US, China, EU) experience displacement first and fastest. Lower-adoption regions have more time to observe and prepare — but less economic power to respond.

Political Cohesion

Politically stable regions (Japan, EU) can implement coordinated responses. Fragmented or gridlocked systems (US, Latin America) struggle to act decisively.

Cultural Identity

Regions where identity is tied to work (US, Japan) face deeper psychological crises. Those with stronger community bonds or social structures adapt more smoothly.

7 Regional Paths

Under the Moderate (Demis) scenario, regions follow different stability trajectories based on their structural characteristics.

Regional Comparison Matrix

RegionSafety NetTech AdoptionPolitical Stability2025 → 2040
United States75 50
European Union80 65
China70 60
Japan85 70
India65 40
Latin America60 45
Africa55 45

Reading the data: Stability scores range from 0-100. Higher scores indicate lower risk of social unrest, political collapse, or economic crisis. All regions experience a mid-transition dip, but recovery paths diverge based on structural characteristics.