US State Outlook

How AI displacement unfolds across America depends on when AGI arrives. Each state's timing and severity varies by its industry mix and tech adoption.

Select Scenario

AGI Timeline

How to read this: Each scenario shows the same events, but timing shifts based on when AGI arrives. "Major" events are marked with larger indicators.

How States Fit The Timeline

Tech Hubs Hit First

California, New York, Massachusetts, and Washington feel displacement earliest. Their economies concentrate in knowledge work — exactly what AI displaces first.

Timeline Determines Speed

In the Moderate (Demis) scenario (AGI 2030), states have 4 years to prepare. Faster timelines compress state responses into crisis mode. Slower ones allow adaptation.

Regional Divergence

Manufacturing states (Ohio, Michigan) peak later but face compounding effects. Service-heavy states see gradual rise. Each follows a different displacement curve.

Policy Response Varies

States with strong safety nets and proactive policies (see branch point indicators) can shift trajectories. Federal inaction forces state-level experimentation.

State Displacement Timeline

Under the Moderate (Demis) scenario, states experience peak displacement at different times based on their industry composition.

very high Risk States

Tech hubs with high knowledge work concentration

Displacement Timeline
2026—2027
Starts → Peaks
CaliforniaNew YorkMassachusettsWashingtonColorado

high Risk States

Major metros with diverse economies

Displacement Timeline
2026—2028
Starts → Peaks
TexasFloridaIllinoisGeorgiaNew JerseyVirginiaNorth CarolinaPennsylvania

medium Risk States

Mid-sized cities with mixed industries

Displacement Timeline
2027—2029
Starts → Peaks
ArizonaMinnesotaOregonConnecticutMarylandWisconsin

lower Risk States

Manufacturing and service-heavy states

Displacement Timeline
2028—2030
Starts → Peaks
OhioMichiganTennesseeIndianaMissouri

Housing Market Impact

Job displacement cascades into real estate. Mortgage defaults lag employment loss by 6-12 months. High-displacement states face severe housing corrections.

The Employment → Housing Cascade

Unemployment Threshold

Most homeowners can sustain 3-6 months of unemployment before mortgage default. Mass displacement compresses this timeline.

Commercial Real Estate Crisis

$1.8T in CRE loans maturing 2024-2026. Office vacancy at 19.6% nationally. Remote work + AI = compounding pressure.

Regional Amplification

Tech hub housing markets inflated by high-income knowledge workers. Price corrections steeper where displacement concentrates.

very high Risk States

Projected Price Drop
-35% to -50%
Timeline: 2027—2028
Most Vulnerable Metros
  • •San Francisco Bay Area
  • •Seattle
  • •Austin
  • •Boston
Key Vulnerabilities
• High concentration of tech worker homeowners
• Elevated price-to-income ratios
• Office market overexposure

high Risk States

Projected Price Drop
-25% to -40%
Timeline: 2028—2029
Most Vulnerable Metros
  • •NYC Metro
  • •Miami
  • •Atlanta
  • •Dallas
Key Vulnerabilities
• Significant white-collar employment base
• Mixed office/residential exposure
• Moderate mortgage debt levels

medium Risk States

Projected Price Drop
-20% to -35%
Timeline: 2029—2030
Most Vulnerable Metros
  • •Phoenix
  • •Portland
  • •Denver suburbs
  • •Twin Cities
Key Vulnerabilities
• Diversified but vulnerable sectors
• Growing tech presence
• Recent price appreciation

lower Risk States

Projected Price Drop
-15% to -30%
Timeline: 2030—2031
Most Vulnerable Metros
  • •Columbus
  • •Indianapolis
  • •Nashville
  • •Kansas City
Key Vulnerabilities
• Lower knowledge work concentration
• More affordable housing baseline
• Delayed but compounding effects

Historical Context

2008 Crisis: -33% national

Triggered by subprime mortgages. 4.6M foreclosures (2009-2012). Recovery took 10 years.

Great Depression: -30% to -50%

50% of mortgages in default by 1933. Created modern mortgage system (FHA, 30-year loans).

→ Compare to past housing crises

Interactive State Map

Explore the full 50-state heat map with industry breakdowns, displacement curves, and adjustable timelines. Click any state for detailed projections.

View Full Map

Full Timeline View

See how all 8 parallel systems evolve — employment, real estate, policy response, and more. Understand the branch points that determine state outcomes.

View Timeline

Current Evidence

$285B

Software stock crash (Feb 3, 2026) — displacement already pricing in

-13%

Entry-level hiring freeze (Stanford) — tech hubs feel it first

19.6%

Office vacancy rate (national record) — real estate following employment